Topic

Verification Economics

A cost model centered on correct answers, verifier accept rates, and the economics of deciding whether outputs are usable.

Definition: Verification Economics in the glossary.

Why It Matters Here

As reasoning systems spend more tokens per task, verification becomes the lever that decides whether cost turns into value.

Programs

Linked Artifacts

Paper / May 11, 2026

Calibration Drift Under Verifier Composition. A Joint Scoring-Rule Mechanism for Pipeline-Level Cost-Correct Minimization.

Research Paper #2 in the verification-economics wedge. Per-verifier strictly proper elicitation does not compose. Pipeline miscalibration under any monotone Boolean composition rule equals the within-instance verifier-disagreement covariance exactly. A joint scoring-rule mechanism on the cross-product report space restores DSIC and minimax-optimal regret of order sqrt((log K_1 + log K_2) / N). Per-component procurement records are insufficient evidence under the August 2026 EU AI Act high-risk obligations on composed pipelines.

Paper / May 15, 2026

The Inference-Time Compute Frontier. A Cost-Correct Threshold for Training Versus Test-Time Allocation.

Research Paper #2 in the inference-economics wedge. Derives a closed-form threshold under the Cost-correct decomposition for when the marginal compute dollar reduces cost-per-correct-answer faster on the inference channel than on the training channel. Calibrated against rStar-Math, DeepSeek-R1, and test-time-compute curves; matches the observed frontier-vs-commodity market split.

Field Note / May 10, 2026

The Verifier as Curriculum. VHG and the Third Role.

A daily field note on Lai, Feng, Teh, and Miao's VHG. Three-party setter-solver-verifier self-play. Why the verifier's job in the production lifecycle just expanded from two places to three.

Definition / Undated

Verification Economics

The study of cost-per-correct-answer and the verifier as a cost-and-value lever in reasoning systems.